Predictive Effects of Students' Grades in Prior Mathematics Courses
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DFW rates in first-year mathematics courses are a major concern for undergraduate institutions. In this study, we explored statistical trends in grades for students who repeat mathematics courses or transition to subsequent courses. We analyzed trends among final grades in courses from Intermediate Algebra through Calculus II over the past five years at a major midwestern metropolitan university. Our results show that students are statistically more likely to pass a class on their first attempt, and that DFW rates among students who repeat a course hover around 50% for subsequent repetitions of the same course. We also found that final grades are a strong predictor of grades in subsequent courses, with students who earn an A in the previous course being 3 and 4 times more likely to pass the subsequent course than students who earn a B or C, respectively. We conclude by discussing the implications of our results.